Failures can share some of the same traits as successes. If certain factors always lead to failure, we won't be able to discover them by only studying successes.
Conventional beliefs yield conventional results. That's why newcomers have an innovation advantage - their thinking isn't constrained by years of industry experience.
Creativity is not a gift from God, and if you insist on seeing it that way, you're simply giving yourself an excuse not to try. Sometimes you have to take a chance.